MS Confirms Windows 11 Sales Were Boosted by Windows 10’s End of Life

MS has officially acknowledged a widely held belief over the past year: Windows 11 PC sales were primarily driven by the end-of-life for Windows 10, rather than the adoption of AI-powered PCs. Despite this, OEMs like HP continue to assert that AI PCs are fueling Windows 11 sales. However, MS’s latest data reveals a more complex narrative.

MS’s Financial Results and Windows 11 Challenges

MS announced an impressive fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of $90.0 billion, exceeding Wall Street predictions and boosting its stock price. During the earnings call, MS CEO Satya Nadella admitted that Windows 11 requires substantial “quality improvements” and committed to a major update focusing on core functionalities.

However, Windows OEM and Devices revenue declined by 7%, with Windows OEM revenue down 5% alone. This drop has raised concerns, especially given the claimed popularity of AI PCs. MS conceded that prior growth was largely due to the end-of-support for Windows 10.

Slower Adoption of Windows 11

Extended security updates for Windows 10 and user hesitation to upgrade have led to slower adoption of Windows 11. MS subtly acknowledged in recent financial reports that the 2025 spike in sales stemmed from Windows 10’s end-of-support deadline. The company attributed revenue declines to “weaker PC market demand and a tough comparison to the prior year, which benefited from Windows 10’s end of support.”

Despite these hurdles, OEMs and channel partners reportedly increased inventory in response to rising component costs, helping MS exceed expectations for the quarter.

MS Extends Windows 10 Support to 2027

MS has extended Windows 10 support by another year, now scheduled to end in October 2027. The company recognizes that convincing the remaining Windows 10 users to upgrade to Windows 11 will be a major challenge. Instead of applying pressure, MS is sending reminder emails, offering users more time to decide on upgrading.

These emails, sent to users with a MS account on a Windows 10 PC, emphasize that extended support is available for an additional year. Interestingly, MS has avoided aggressively promoting Windows 11, focusing instead on giving users a choice. There’s even speculation that support could extend to 2028 if adoption rates remain low.

The extended support was quietly confirmed in an updated support document, noticed only through monitoring MS’s documentation updates via the Web Archive.

OEMs Push AI PCs, But Data Tells a Different Story

HP’s AI PC Strategy

HP continues to be one of the most vocal OEMs advocating that AI PCs are driving sales. Karen L. Parkhill, HP’s Executive Vice President and CFO, disclosed in May 2026 that around 30% of HP’s installed base still uses Windows 10. This significant percentage remains central to HP’s sales strategy.

“We observed strong growth in both EMEA and APJ regions this quarter,” Parkhill said. “Part of that growth was driven by anticipated tailwinds from Windows 11. Currently, approximately 30% of our installed base remains on Windows 10.”

Ketan Patel, HP’s President of Personal Systems, identified the remaining Windows 10 users as a short-term growth opportunity. “Still, with 30% of our installed base yet to refresh, it presents a clear tailwind for us,” Patel noted, also highlighting AI at the edge as another growth driver.

The reality, however, is that HP’s reported growth is primarily due to Windows 10 users upgrading their hardware—not widespread enthusiasm for AI PCs. Nonetheless, HP continues to frame this migration as a success for AI PCs.

Dell’s Pivot Away from AI PCs

Unlike HP, Dell identified the limitations of the AI PC narrative earlier and adjusted its strategy. At CES 2026, Dell announced a shift away from AI PCs, redirecting its focus toward areas like gaming, build quality, battery life, and display advancements. “We’re returning to our roots with a renewed emphasis on consumer and gaming segments,” a Dell executive stated during the event.

In 2025, Dell heavily marketed AI PCs, discontinuing well-known product lines like XPS and Inspiron in favor of AI-focused branding. However, by early 2026, Dell reversed this strategy, reintroducing the XPS lineup and reducing its emphasis on local AI features.

During its Q3 2026 earnings call, Dell’s Vice Chairman and COO, Jeff Clarke, revealed that Windows 11 adoption lagged 10 to 12 percentage points behind Windows 10 at the same stage of its rollout. Many customers continued to hold onto older PCs, further complicating Dell’s AI PC strategy.

While Dell still uses “Copilot+ PC” branding to meet MS’s requirements, it has largely abandoned the notion that AI features alone will drive sales.

MS’s 2027 Outlook: A Core Challenge

MS faces a significant challenge heading into 2027. The company has reported a 7% drop in Windows OEM and Devices revenue, with a projected decline in the high teens to low twenties for the next fiscal year. MS has openly admitted that much of the growth in 2025 was fueled by Windows 10’s end-of-support deadline, not the rise of AI PCs.

With Windows 10 support extended and Windows 11 adoption slowing, MS cannot rely on the same end-of-support urgency to drive sales. Satya Nadella’s commitment to improving the “fundamentals” of Windows 11 may be the company’s last viable approach to encouraging future adoption. Whether this will be sufficient remains to be seen, especially as OEMs like HP continue to push AI PCs while others, such as Dell, shift focus elsewhere.

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